A new age of Web video is dawning. Google has released an efficient video codec (VP8) and accompanying file format (WebM, a Matroska subset) under a Free software license and (even better) a royalty-free patent license. This means that there's already a libre implementation of it (being integrated into browsers as I type this) and that Free software projects don't have to worry about getting sued over patents. Google is already using the codec in the YouTube HTML5 demo section. It's only a matter of time before it will be the standard codec on the popular video website.
When that happens Microsoft and Apple can only follow suit and implement the codec in their own browsers. I'm sure they're not too happy about this, because as far as I know they're still pushing for H.264 to become the (de facto) standard video codec for HTML5. Apple has a finger in the MPEG patent pool, so they're making some money off of it. I believe Microsoft didn't put any patents in it, but it still consists of hundreds of patents owned by many companies. Microsoft's VC1 might be infringing on a number of those, which could be the reason why we don't hear about it a whole lot and why MS bought into the H.264 deal. Seeing such an investment go to waste stings.
But it's almost inevitable that VP8 is going to gain a majority market share in Web video. Apart from Google it's supported by Adobe and many other big names. Support for it in Flash is good in the short term, but I hope it'll be mostly used in conjunction with HTML5 in the long run. Speaking of which: HTML5 (and the video element) has seen fairly slow adoption so far and my understanding is that the video codec issue is for a large part to blame for that. The main problem some companies have with Theora is that, although it's patent-free in theory, patent trolls could potentially pull some submarine patents out of their sleeve to screw everyone over. Neither H.264 nor VP8 is safe from that, but they have the advantage of corporate backing. It also helps that all of Google's patent license grants are automatically revoked for anyone sueing over the codec or file format. That leaves only patent trolls to fear, but not real companies.
As much as I like this new development, it also confirms my worries about Google that the company is becoming way too powerful. It will greatly change the Web's implementation in the following months, whereas the Free Software Foundation and Xiph have barely managed to scratch the surface in the last few years. It's doing this by buying a company that develops and owns the technology (On2, the ones that brought us Theora), cherrypicking from an existing format, slapping that combination onto its website nobody can ignore and making everybody else an offer they cannot refuse. One of the most powerful companies in the world just got more powerful.
